Analysis of recent coronavirus data for different countries and regions

Note: On March 24 the source of the data suddenly changed the format of the tables. I have updated the script to use data from a different source. If you see problems with any of the plots, please let me know.

Table of contents

Updated on Thursday 09 April 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths in the previous day

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
United States 14668 (+1878) 427101 (+31489) 22314 (+640) 390119 (+28971)
United Kingdom 7097 (+938) 60733 (+5491) 135 (+0) 53501 (+4553)
Spain 14792 (+747) 148220 (+6278) 48021 (+4813) 85407 (+718)
Italy 17669 (+542) 139422 (+3836) 26491 (+2099) 95262 (+1195)
France 10869 (+541) 112950 (+3881) 21254 (+1917) 80827 (+1423)
Germany 2349 (+333) 113296 (+5633) 46300 (+10219) 64647 (-4919)
Belgium 2240 (+205) 23403 (+1209) 4681 (+524) 16482 (+480)
Netherlands 2248 (+147) 20549 (+969) 250 (+0) 18051 (+822)
Brazil 820 (+134) 16188 (+2154) 127 (+0) 15241 (+2020)
Iran 3993 (+121) 64586 (+1997) 29812 (+2773) 30781 (-897)
Sweden 687 (+96) 8419 (+726) 205 (+0) 7527 (+630)
Turkey 812 (+87) 38226 (+4117) 1846 (+264) 35568 (+3766)
Switzerland 895 (+74) 23280 (+1027) 9800 (+1096) 12585 (-143)
Canada 427 (+46) 19438 (+1541) 4548 (+520) 14463 (+975)
Portugal 380 (+35) 13141 (+699) 196 (+12) 12565 (+652)
Austria 273 (+30) 12942 (+303) 4512 (+466) 8157 (-193)
Poland 159 (+30) 5205 (+357) 222 (+31) 4824 (+296)
India 178 (+28) 5916 (+605) 506 (+85) 5232 (+492)
Ireland 235 (+25) 6074 (+365) 25 (+0) 5814 (+340)
Romania 220 (+23) 4761 (+344) 528 (+68) 4013 (+253)
Ecuador 242 (+22) 4450 (+455) 140 (+0) 4068 (+433)
Indonesia 240 (+19) 2956 (+218) 222 (+18) 2494 (+181)
Mexico 141 (+16) 2785 (+346) 633 (+0) 2011 (+330)
Denmark 218 (+15) 5402 (+331) 1621 (+130) 3563 (+186)
Peru 121 (+14) 4342 (+1388) 1333 (+32) 2888 (+1342)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 08 April 2020 85001 (+6364) 1427876 (+83900) 252395 (+27734)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 09 April 2020 89644 ( +5511) 1484476 ( +67513) 267821 ( +20247)
Fri 10 April 2020 94894 ( +5250) 1547105 ( +62629) 287584 ( +19763)
Sat 11 April 2020 99832 ( +4938) 1604623 ( +57518) 306596 ( +19012)
Sun 12 April 2020 104422 ( +4589) 1656961 ( +52339) 324631 ( +18034)
Mon 13 April 2020 108640 ( +4218) 1704189 ( +47227) 341511 ( +16881)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 08 April 2020 3333 (+2) 81802 (+62) 77279 (+112)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 09 April 2020 3268 ( +0) 81086 ( +0) 76013 ( +43)
Fri 10 April 2020 3268 ( +0) 81086 ( +0) 76050 ( +37)
Sat 11 April 2020 3268 ( +0) 81086 ( +0) 76082 ( +32)
Sun 12 April 2020 3268 ( +0) 81086 ( +0) 76110 ( +28)
Mon 13 April 2020 3268 ( +0) 81086 ( +0) 76134 ( +24)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 08 April 2020 14792 (+747) 148220 (+6278) 48021 (+4813)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 09 April 2020 14795 ( +378) 148797 ( +3250) 49190 ( +2334)
Fri 10 April 2020 15108 ( +313) 151546 ( +2749) 51172 ( +1982)
Sat 11 April 2020 15364 ( +257) 153856 ( +2310) 52827 ( +1655)
Sun 12 April 2020 15573 ( +209) 155785 ( +1929) 54190 ( +1363)
Mon 13 April 2020 15743 ( +169) 157389 ( +1604) 55299 ( +1109)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 08 April 2020 17669 (+542) 139422 (+3836) 26491 (+2099)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 09 April 2020 17722 ( +354) 137803 ( +1921) 26373 ( +935)
Fri 10 April 2020 18031 ( +308) 139475 ( +1673) 27233 ( +860)
Sat 11 April 2020 18297 ( +267) 140926 ( +1451) 28019 ( +786)
Sun 12 April 2020 18527 ( +230) 142181 ( +1255) 28731 ( +712)
Mon 13 April 2020 18724 ( +197) 143264 ( +1082) 29373 ( +642)

United States

I use the combined data for all the states combined

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 08 April 2020 14668 (+1878) 427101 (+31489) 22314 (+640)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 09 April 2020 15875 ( +1487) 442143 ( +21851) 23978 ( +1274)
Fri 10 April 2020 17270 ( +1394) 461317 ( +19173) 24991 ( +1013)
Sat 11 April 2020 18542 ( +1272) 477883 ( +16566) 25777 ( +786)
Sun 12 April 2020 19675 ( +1133) 492008 ( +14125) 26376 ( +599)
Mon 13 April 2020 20661 ( +986) 503914 ( +11907) 26826 ( +450)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 08 April 2020 10869 (+541) 112950 (+3881) 21254 (+1917)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 09 April 2020 11959 ( +908) 125471 ( +9317) 26220 ( +3125)
Fri 10 April 2020 12800 ( +842) 134774 ( +9303) 29767 ( +3547)
Sat 11 April 2020 13565 ( +764) 143958 ( +9185) 33795 ( +4027)
Sun 12 April 2020 14245 ( +681) 152926 ( +8968) 38367 ( +4572)
Mon 13 April 2020 14842 ( +596) 161589 ( +8662) 43558 ( +5191)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 08 April 2020 3993 (+121) 64586 (+1997) 29812 (+2773)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 09 April 2020 3897 ( +64) 68023 ( +2464) 30987 ( +2463)
Fri 10 April 2020 3954 ( +57) 70394 ( +2371) 33663 ( +2676)
Sat 11 April 2020 4005 ( +50) 72663 ( +2270) 36571 ( +2907)
Sun 12 April 2020 4049 ( +44) 74826 ( +2162) 39729 ( +3158)
Mon 13 April 2020 4088 ( +39) 76876 ( +2050) 43160 ( +3431)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 08 April 2020 2349 (+333) 113296 (+5633) 46300 (+10219)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 09 April 2020 2456 ( +190) 113519 ( +2652) 52727 ( +7452)
Fri 10 April 2020 2632 ( +176) 115795 ( +2276) 61405 ( +8679)
Sat 11 April 2020 2791 ( +159) 117735 ( +1940) 71512 ( +10107)
Sun 12 April 2020 2931 ( +141) 119379 ( +1644) 83283 ( +11771)
Mon 13 April 2020 3054 ( +122) 120764 ( +1386) 96991 ( +13708)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 08 April 2020 7097 (+938) 60733 (+5491) 135 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 09 April 2020 7628 ( +648) 64178 ( +3966) 187 ( +10)
Fri 10 April 2020 8216 ( +588) 67844 ( +3666) 197 ( +10)
Sat 11 April 2020 8734 ( +518) 71180 ( +3336) 207 ( +11)
Sun 12 April 2020 9179 ( +446) 74172 ( +2992) 219 ( +11)
Mon 13 April 2020 9555 ( +376) 76820 ( +2649) 230 ( +12)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 08 April 2020 687 (+96) 8419 (+726) 205 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 09 April 2020 750 ( +83) 8794 ( +488) 210 ( +0)
Fri 10 April 2020 834 ( +84) 9276 ( +482) 210 ( +0)
Sat 11 April 2020 918 ( +84) 9747 ( +471) 210 ( +0)
Sun 12 April 2020 999 ( +81) 10205 ( +458) 210 ( +0)
Mon 13 April 2020 1076 ( +77) 10647 ( +442) 210 ( +0)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 08 April 2020 2248 (+147) 20549 (+969) 250 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 09 April 2020 2294 ( +102) 20740 ( +589) 250 ( +0)
Fri 10 April 2020 2383 ( +88) 21254 ( +515) 250 ( +0)
Sat 11 April 2020 2457 ( +75) 21701 ( +446) 250 ( +0)
Sun 12 April 2020 2520 ( +63) 22085 ( +384) 250 ( +0)
Mon 13 April 2020 2572 ( +52) 22414 ( +329) 250 ( +0)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 08 April 2020 159 (+30) 5205 (+357) 222 (+31)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 09 April 2020 185 ( +28) 5523 ( +346) 237 ( +18)
Fri 10 April 2020 218 ( +33) 5851 ( +328) 250 ( +13)
Sat 11 April 2020 255 ( +37) 6157 ( +306) 260 ( +9)
Sun 12 April 2020 297 ( +42) 6440 ( +283) 266 ( +6)
Mon 13 April 2020 343 ( +46) 6697 ( +258) 270 ( +4)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 08 April 2020 895 (+74) 23280 (+1027) 9800 (+1096)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 09 April 2020 919 ( +42) 22667 ( +294) 10438 ( +728)
Fri 10 April 2020 956 ( +37) 22913 ( +246) 11040 ( +602)
Sat 11 April 2020 988 ( +32) 23117 ( +204) 11524 ( +483)
Sun 12 April 2020 1016 ( +28) 23286 ( +169) 11903 ( +379)
Mon 13 April 2020 1040 ( +23) 23426 ( +140) 12194 ( +292)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 08 April 2020 2240 (+205) 23403 (+1209) 4681 (+524)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 09 April 2020 2433 ( +227) 23937 ( +865) 4858 ( +258)
Fri 10 April 2020 2649 ( +217) 24692 ( +755) 5080 ( +222)
Sat 11 April 2020 2851 ( +202) 25343 ( +652) 5268 ( +188)
Sun 12 April 2020 3035 ( +184) 25900 ( +557) 5424 ( +156)
Mon 13 April 2020 3199 ( +164) 26373 ( +473) 5553 ( +128)

Comparison of different countries

Early onset: China regions

Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.